为深入揭示公众参与滑雪旅游行为意愿的内在形成机制，采用包含两个阶段的整合设计。研 究一通过对理性行为理论（TRA）、计划行为理论（TPB）、目标导向行为理论（MGB）及拓展目标导向行为 理论（E-MGB）进行实证比较，筛选出MGB作为解释公众滑雪旅游参与意愿的最优理论框架。在此基础 上，研究二融入双系统理论视角，通过对 1 177份滑雪游客的问卷调查数据进行分析，构建并检验了一个 包含链式中介和调节效应的精细化模型。研究发现，公众对滑雪旅游的积极态度能够通过依次激发其 正向预期情绪和参与欲望，进而正向影响其最终的行为意图，形成了“态度 → 正向预期情绪 → 欲望 → 行为意图”的系统1主导的链式中介路径。同时，作为系统2认知评估因素的主观规范和感知行为控制 在上述核心路径的关键节点上发挥了复杂的调节作用：具体而言，主观规范在“态度 → 正向预期情绪” 的路径中呈现负向调节效应，即较高的主观规范反而可能削弱积极态度向积极情感预期的转化效率；感 知行为控制则在系统1核心路径中展现出双重调节效应，它正向调节了“正向预期情绪 → 欲望”的路 径，从而增强积极情感向参与欲望的转化，但同时负向调节了“欲望 → 行为意图”的路径，表明在高感知 行为控制下，强烈的参与欲望向具体行为意图的转化效率反而可能降低。研究不仅验证了 MGB在滑雪 旅游情境下的适用性，更揭示了系统1（情感－动机驱动）与系统2（认知评估）在塑造公众滑雪旅游参与 意愿过程中的复杂互动机制，为理解体验性体育活动参与决策提供了新的理论视角，并为滑雪旅游的推 广策略和相关政策制定提供了科学依据与实践指导。

To elucidate the mechanisms underlying behavioral intention in ski tourism， this study employed a two-stage integrated design. Study 1 empirically compared the Theory of Reasoned Action（TRA）， Theory of Planned Behavior（TPB）， Model of Goal-directed Behavior（MGB）， and Extended MGB（E-MGB）， establishing MGB as the optimal theoretical framework. Building on this foundation， Study 2 integrated Dual-system theory to develop and test a Dual-system–integrated Model of Goal-directed Behavior. Using survey data from 1 177 ski tourists，this refined model investigated complex chain mediation and moderation effects. Findings revealed a System 1-driven chain mediation pathway whereby positive attitude sequentially fosters positive anticipated emotions and desire， culminating in a positive influence on behavioral intention （Attitude → Positive Anticipated Emotions → Desire → Behavioral Intention）. Simultaneously， System 2 cognitive factors exerted complex moderating effects. Subjective norm negatively moderated the path from attitude to positive anticipated emotions， suggesting that greater social pressure impedes the conversion of positive attitudes into favorable emotional expectations. Perceived behavioral control played a dual moderating role： it amplified the transformation from positive anticipated emotions to desire but attenuated the one from desire to behavioral intention. This indicates that while high perceived control facilitates the transformation of emotion into desire， it paradoxically constrains the translation of that desire into concrete intention. This research not only validates the MGB's utility in the ski tourism context but also uncovers the intricate interplay between emotion-driven（System 1）and cognitive-evaluative（System 2）processes. It offers novel theoretical insights into participation decisions for experiential sports and provides actionable guidance for ski tourism promotion and policy-making.

F592； G863.1

国家社会科学基金一般项目（24BTY071）