新质生产力驱动体育产业结构优化升级是体育产业高质量发展的重要举措。通过对2014— 2021年 20个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据进行实证分析，对新质生产力发展水平和体育产业结构优 化升级水平进行测度，并结合双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型，分析新质生产力发展 水平与体育产业结构优化升级水平之间的关系。在双向固定效应模型的基础上，实证分析发现新质生 产力对体育产业结构优化升级具有显著的正向推动作用；在推进其结构优化升级的过程中，技术交易市 场活跃度作为中介变量，起到了间接作用；但新质生产力与体育产业结构优化升级之间也具有非线性特 征，存在技术交易市场活跃度的一阶门槛效应。研究建议：加快发展体育产业领域新质生产力，推动技 术革新；完善科技创新机制，打通技术交易与成果转化渠道；实施差异化区域发展战略，因地制宜激活体 育产业新动能。

The optimization and upgrading of the structure of the sports industry driven by new quality productive forces is an important initiative for the high-quality development of the sports industry. By empirically analyzing the panel data of 20 provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government）from 2014 to 2021， this study measures the level of development of new quality productive forces and the level of optimization and upgrading of the structure of the sports industry， and combined with the bidirectional fixed effect model， the mediation effect model and the threshold effect model， it analyses the relationship between the level of development of new quality productive forces and the level of optimization and upgrading of sports industry structure. Based on the two-way fixed effect model， the empirical analysis finds that the new quality productive forces has a significant positive driving effect on the optimization and upgrading of the sports industry structure； in the process of promoting the optimization and upgrading of its structure， the degree of activity of the technology trading market plays an indirect role as a mediator variable； however， the relationship between the new quality productive forces and the optimization and upgrading of the sports industry structure is also characterized by a non-linear feature， and there exists a first-order threshold effect of the degree of activity of the technology trading market. The study suggests： accelerating the development of new quality productive forces in the sports industry and promoting technological innovation； improving the mechanism of scientific and technological innovation to open up channels for technology trading and achievement transformation； implementing differentiated regional development strategies to activate new driving forces for the sports industry based on local conditions.

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国家社会科学基金后期资助项目（24FTYB003）；湖北省 教育科学规划课题（2024GB352）